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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Montana’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Montana voters will select nominees in Tuesday’s state primary to replace departing Republican incumbents in the U.S. Senate and House, but one major contender won’t be on the ballot. Meanwhile, several state legislative primaries will highlight divisions within Montana’s dominant Republican Party.

Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress. Montana has not been at the top of the list of seats Democrats hope to flip to regain control of either body, but the retirements do creak open the door for a candidate to possibly take advantage of the state’s independent streak.

Republican U.S. Sen. Steve Daines is not seeking a third term. He has endorsed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme to replace him. Daines’ late withdrawal from the race in March and the launch of Alme’s candidacy, both timed to occur just before the filing deadline, appeared to be carefully choreographed. President Donald Trump seemed to confirm as much in his endorsement of Alme.

“In fact, if Kurt didn’t have the highest level of aptitude and talent, Steve would have remained exactly where he is….” Trump said in a social media post.

Alme also has endorsements from the state’s other top Republicans, U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy and Gov. Greg Gianforte. He faces Republicans Lee Calhoun and Charles Walking Child for the nomination.

The Democratic field includes former state Rep. Reilly Neill, whose fundraising is five times the combined haul of her four primary rivals.

The winners of both primaries will face former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, who is running as an independent. As of mid-May, Bodnar had outraised the entire field of candidates, regardless of party. Bodnar is one of a handful of independent candidates who have opted to bypass the party primary process and could complicate the general election for some Republican incumbents.

In the 1st Congressional District, Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke is not seeking a fourth full term, citing health concerns. He, Trump, Sheehy and Gianforte have endorsed talk radio host and former Zinke congressional staffer Aaron Flint over Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen, former state Sen. Al Olszewski and former high school government teacher Ray Curtis. The Democratic field includes former gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse and union organizer Sam Forstag.

In the state Legislature, several primaries expose an ongoing rift within the ranks of Montana Republicans.

At the start of the 2025 legislative session, nine Republican state senators bucked the party on a variety of key floor measures, essentially handing control of the chamber to Democrats.

State Sen. Shelley Vance of District 34 is the only one of the maverick lawmakers, dubbed the “Nasty Nine” by the Montana GOP, up for reelection in 2026. Two others, state Sens. Jason Ellsworth and Bruce Gillespie, opted instead to run for the state House in Districts 34 and 18, respectively. The other six are either term-limited, retiring or not up this cycle.

In response to the revolt within the Republican caucus, the Montana Republican Party released a list of state legislative candidates it supports, including some who are challenging Republican incumbents in the state House. But some of the state party’s picks put the committee at odds with Gianforte, who has released a series of social media videos appearing with four state House incumbents targeted by the party.

The governor offered words of support for state House Speaker Brandon Ler and state Reps. Valerie Moore and Ken Walsh, who are all running for reelection, and for state Rep. Eric Albus, who is running in state Senate District 14. Gianforte does not explicitly endorse the lawmakers in the videos, but he called one a “great partner” and said he was “proud of the work” he’d done with another.

Half of the state’s 50 state Senate seats and all 100 state House seats are up for election in 2026.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. MT, which is 10 p.m. ET.

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, Public Service Commission, state Senate and state House.

Any eligible voter may participate in any party’s primary.

As of May 25, there were about 791,000 registered voters in Montana. Voters do not register by party.

About 190,000 Republican primary votes and about 108,000 Democratic primary votes were cast in the 2024 U.S. Senate primaries.

About 68% of the 2024 primary vote was cast before primary day.

As of Friday, about 166,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

Counties vary in how they release votes. In previous elections, results from absentee voting mostly were released along with in-person Election Day voting throughout the night. About two-thirds of Montana’s 56 counties tend to release all or almost all of their mail and in-person early voting results in the first vote update of the night, often along with results from in-person Election Day voting. About half the counties tend to release all or almost all their in-person Election Day results in the first vote report.

In the 2024 U.S. Senate primary, the AP first reported results at 10:26 p.m. ET, or 26 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 4:06 a.m. ET with about 84% of total votes counted.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Montana requires an automatic recount only in the event of a tie vote. A candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote, but the state will only pay for it if the margin is 0.25% or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.


Brought to you by www.srnnews.com


AP Decision Notes: What to expect in South Dakota’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — South Dakota’s governor, the speaker of the state House, the state’s lone representative in Congress and a businessman will face off in a competitive Republican primary for governor on Tuesday. Primary voters will also choose nominees for other state and federal offices, while Sioux Falls residents will elect a new mayor.

Gov. Larry Rhoden seeks a full term as the state’s chief executive. He was previously lieutenant governor under then-Gov. Kristi Noem but assumed the top job when Noem stepped down in early 2025 to join President Donald Trump’s Cabinet.

Serving less than half a term as governor was not enough for Rhoden to clear the Republican field. He faces strong challenges from U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, state House Speaker Jon Hansen and businessman Toby Doeden.

The winner will face former state Sen. Dan Ahlers in the general election. Ahlers is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

At the top of the ballot is the race for the U.S. Senate, in which Republican Mike Rounds seeks a third term. His opponent in the primary is Justin McNeal, a U.S. Navy veteran who ran as an independent in 2024 against Johnson for his U.S. House seat but was kept off the ballot over invalid signatures on his nominating petition.

Nonprofit executive and former state trooper Julian Beaudion is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Attorney and military veteran Brian Bengs is running in the general election as an independent. Bengs previously ran for the U.S. Senate in 2022 and received 26% of the vote against Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune.

State Attorney General Marty Jackley is running to replace Johnson in the U.S. House. He faces Republican James Bialota in the primary.

Trump has endorsed Rounds for U.S. Senate and Jackley for U.S. House. He did not endorse a candidate for governor.

In South Dakota primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, candidates must receive at least 35% of the vote to win the nomination. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the top two vote-getters advance to a June 23 runoff.

In Sioux Falls, the state’s most populous city, five candidates are competing to replace term-limited Mayor Paul TenHaken. If no candidate receives a vote majority, the top two finishers will advance to the runoff.

The key counties to watch on primary night are on opposite ends of the state. Minnehaha County on the eastern border is home to Sioux Falls. Pennington County on the western border is home to Rapid City.

South Dakota is one of the most reliably Republican-voting states in general elections, so the winners in Tuesday’s GOP primaries should enter the general election campaign with a considerable advantage.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET. Polls in most of the state are in Central time and close at 8 p.m. ET, but some polls are in Mountain time and close at 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, state Senate, state House and mayor of Sioux Falls.

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent voters or those with no party affiliation may participate in the Democratic primary but not the Republican primary.

As of April 1, there were about 674,000 registered voters in South Dakota, including about 318,000 registered Republicans, about 138,000 registered Democrats and about 157,000 independents or voters with no political affiliation.

Nearly 119,000 votes were cast in the Republican U.S. Senate primary in 2022.

About 19% of the 2024 primary vote and about 20% of the 2022 primary vote was cast before primary day.

As of May 26, about 17,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, roughly 79% in the Republican primary and roughly 15% in the Democratic primary.

In South Dakota, results from mail and in-person early voting are usually released together with results from in-person Election Day voting. More than a third of the state’s 66 counties tend to release most or all of their results, including in-person Election Day results, in the first vote update.

Although South Dakota spans two time zones, state law requires that no results are released until the final polls have closed at 9 p.m. ET.

In the state’s most recent U.S. Senate primary in 2022, the AP first reported results at 9:02 p.m. ET, or two minutes after the last polls closed. The final vote update of the night was at 3:22 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in South Dakota are automatic only in cases of tie votes. Losing candidates for statewide office may request a recount if the vote margin is 0.25% or less of the total votes cast. Candidates for state legislative and local offices have a higher threshold: 2% of the total votes cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.


Brought to you by www.srnnews.com


AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Two candidates for California governor will emerge from a massive field of 61 hopefuls in a state primary on Tuesday, when voters will also select U.S. House nominees using a new map they approved in a 2025 ballot measure.

Also on the ballot is a long list of state and local contests, including a Los Angeles mayoral race where the Democratic incumbent mayor faces more than a dozen challengers. Among them is a former reality TV personality whose candidacy has caught the eye of another former reality TV personality, President Donald Trump.

California’s top-two primary format, where all candidates run on the same ballot regardless of party, has complicated the campaign calculus in several high-profile races, including the one to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. While Democratic candidates often welcome the opportunity to run head-to-head against a Republican in the dark blue state, the number of well-known Democrats in the race threatens to split the vote and inadvertently clear the path for two Republicans to advance to the general election, which would guarantee a Republican governor.

The Democratic field includes former U.S. health secretary Xavier Becerra, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, billionaire 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Republicans vying for the seat include Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, who has Trump’s endorsement.

Democrats Eric Swalwell and former state Controller Betty Yee will also appear on the ballot, although both have withdrawn from the race. Swalwell was a top contender in the campaign but withdrew on April 12 following sexual assault allegations he has denied. He resigned from Congress two days later.

In the race for control of the narrowly divided U.S. House, a new congressional map favorable to Democrats has complicated the reelection bids of several Republican House incumbents. Voters approved the new district boundaries in a Nov. 2025 referendum, which was a response to Trump’s initiative in Texas and other states to maximize the number of GOP seats heading into the fall midterm election.

In the 6th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley considered his limited options and left the Republican Party in March to run for reelection as an independent.

Republican U.S. Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim are competing against each other in the 40th Congressional District. Democrat Esther Kim Varet is one of several challengers hoping to snag one of two spots in the general election.

Also on the ballot is a special election in the 1st Congressional District to complete the term of the late Republican U.S. Rep. Doug LaMalfa, who died in January. The five-person field pits the Democratic state Senate President against the Republican state Assembly Minority Leader. If no candidate receives a vote majority, the top two finishers will compete one-on-one on Aug. 4. The winner will serve under the current district boundaries, not the new map going into effect in the next Congress.

A special election to fill Swalwell’s vacant 14th Congressional District seat will be held June 16, also under the current boundaries.

In the race for Los Angeles mayor, Democrat Karen Bass seeks a second term in the nonpartisan office against tech entrepreneur Adam Miller, former MTV reality show cast member Spencer Pratt, City Councilmember Nithya Raman and others. Trump recently said of Pratt, “I’d like to see him do well.”

Democrats have a significant advantage over Republicans in statewide races based on their overwhelming support in the populous areas surrounding Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sacramento and San Diego. Republicans tend to perform best in the more sparsely populated areas of northern California and the Central Valley, while running competitively in Southern California suburbs outside of Los Angeles and San Diego. A Republican has not won statewide office in California since 2006.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. PT, which is 11 p.m. ET.

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested races for U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, treasurer, attorney general, insurance commissioner, state school superintendent, Board of Equalization, state Senate, State House, mayor of Long Beach, mayor of Los Angeles and Los Angeles County sheriff.

Any registered voter in California may participate in the state primary.

As of April 3, there were about 23.1 million registered voters in California, including about 10.4 million Democrats, about 5.8 million Republicans and about 5.3 million not registered with any party.

About 7.3 million votes were cast in the U.S. Senate primary in 2024, roughly a third of registered voters.

About 89% of vote in the 2024 U.S. Senate primary was cast before primary day.

As of Thursday, about 2.6 million ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.

About four out of every five California counties release some or most of their results from mail voting in the first vote report of the night, usually before any in-person Election Day results are released. Almost half the counties release most or all of their in-person early voting results in the first vote report.

Since mail voting tends to favor Democrats and in-person Election Day voting tends to favor Republicans, the release of mail voting results at the start of the night could result in an early lead for Democratic candidates, while Republican candidates may narrow the gap as more Election Day results are counted.

In the 2024 primaries, the AP first reported results at 11:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 6:01 a.m. ET with about 52% of total votes counted. The count reached 99% of total votes about two weeks later on March 20 at 7:47 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are no automatic recounts in California. Any registered voter may request and pay for a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 14 days until the June 16 special primary in Congressional District 14, 63 days until the Aug. 4 special general election in Congressional District 1, 77 days until the Aug. 18 special general election in Congressional District 14 and 154 days until the Nov. 3 general election.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.


Brought to you by www.srnnews.com


The Latest: Trump faces new inflation warning from bond market, adding to midterm challenges

The energy price spike triggered by the Iran war has seeped into the price of bonds that help fund the U.S. government, causing interest rates to climb in ways that are worsening affordability pressures, hampering economic growth and creating a new risk for Republicans in November’s midterm elections.

Also, the United States said Monday that it bombed radar and drone sites in Iran after Tehran shot down an American drone over the weekend. Iran then said it launched a strike of its own, and Kuwait reported incoming fire.

The nominal ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. has been repeatedly tested with such back-and-forth attacks, even as officials from both countries try to negotiate an end to the war.

Here’s the latest:

Tina Peters, the former clerk convicted of participating in a scheme to chase election conspiracy theories promulgated by President Trump, was released from prison Monday after the president successfully pressured Colorado’s Democratic governor into commuting her sentence.

Peters’ release was confirmed by the Colorado Department of Corrections. The state agency said it would have no more information about the 70-year-old inmate. Her sentence was shortened by Colorado Gov. Jared Polis last month after Trump waged a lengthy pressure campaign against the governor and his state.

Former Colorado elections clerk and conspiracy theorist Tina Peters is scheduled to be released from prison Monday after serving less than a quarter of a nine-year sentence for her role in a scheme to copy her county’s election system.

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, commuted Peters’ sentence last month following pressure from President Trump.

The Colorado Department of Corrections would not confirm the time of Peters’ release, and a representative for her attorney said Peters would not speak to the media when she’s freed.

Peters was the first local election official to be charged with breaching security after the 2020 election. She snuck in an outside computer expert affiliated with My Pillow Chief Executive Mike Lindell — who himself denied that Trump lost the White House in 2020 — and the person copied the county’s Dominion Voting Systems computer server as it was updated in 2021.

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Oil prices are rising following the latest fighting to threaten the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but Wall Street isn’t very worried.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% early Monday, falling a bit below the record it set last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 166 points, and the Nasdaq composite was little changed.

Brent crude climbed 4.7%, and Treasury yields moved higher in the bond market. Tech stocks held up better than the rest of the market.

Science Applications International Corp. soared after becoming the latest U.S. company to report bigger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected.

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A standoff between the White House and the Senate remains unresolved after Republican senators defiantly left town 10 days ago without passing legislation to fund President Trump’s immigration enforcement agencies.

Senate Republicans who are returning to Washington on Monday say they won’t have the votes to pass the Homeland Security spending bill until the White House works with them to place parameters on the new $1.776 billion settlement fund designed to compensate Trump’s allies. But Trump has shown little interest in doing so, even after a judge temporarily halted any payouts.

It’s unclear how they’ll settle the dispute.

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Former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used one of his first major public appearances since leaving office to defend independent institutions while accepting an award Sunday honoring his efforts to preserve the central bank’s independence.

Speaking at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library overlooking Boston Harbor, Powell called universities, courts, Congress and the central bank “the foundation and the embodiment of our democracy” and argued that the Fed’s independence was a “priceless asset” that must be protected.

It was one of his most direct defenses of Fed independence, warning that a single administration’s decision to remove bank officials over policy differences would open the way for future elected officials to follow suit, ultimately undermining the credibility that the Fed has spent decades building.

Powell, who frequently clashed with Trump during his eight years as chair, stepped down as his term expired in May. He was succeeded by Kevin Warsh, whom Trump selected to lead the central bank.

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Trump on Saturday branded the federal judge who blocked his renovation of the Kennedy Center as “an anti Trump Hater” and predicted that the nation’s premier performing arts center, which he wanted to shutter for a two-year overhaul, will “soon be closed, probably never to open again.”

In a lengthy post on his Truth Social platform, Trump fumed about the Friday decision from U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper, who also ordered Trump’s name removed from the center. Clearly angered by his latest legal setback, he said it was “impossible for me to be treated fairly,” tying Cooper’s ruling to earlier losses, including the Supreme Court’s rejection in February of his sweeping tariffs.

His post aimed to make the case for the project even as he says he’s giving up on it. Hours after Cooper’s decision, Trump said he was backing away from the renovations and making arrangements to relinquish control to Congress of what, until the Republican president’s second term, had been known as the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts.

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An upcoming celebration of America’s 250th anniversary, “The Great American State Fair,” recently had several musical guests back out partly over the event’s ties to President Trump. Now, Trump himself is slated to headline the festivities, the organizers said Saturday.

“I understand Artists are getting ‘the yips’ having to do with their performance,” Trump posted to his social media platform Truth Social Saturday, adding that he was thinking of bringing “the man who some say is the Greatest President in History (THE GOAT!), DONALD J. TRUMP, to take the place of these highly paid, Third Rate ‘Artists.’”

The group organizing the June fair on Washington’s National Mall, Freedom 250, confirmed the billing in a statement, writing, “We are excited to announce that President Trump will personally kick off this historic celebration on Wednesday, June 24.”

Freedom 250 is billed as nonpartisan, but was launched last year by Trump and is led by a former State Department appointee from Trump’s first term. Several artists, including Bret Michaels, the Commodores and Martina McBride dropped out last week.

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The United States said Monday that it bombed radar and drone sites in Iran after Tehran shot down an American drone over the weekend. Iran then said it launched a strike of its own, and Kuwait reported incoming fire.

The nominal ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. has been repeatedly tested with such back-and-forth attacks, even as officials from both countries try to negotiate an end to the war. It’s not clear how close they are to a deal — and there is always the risk that an attack could derail those talks.

In the meantime, Iran has maintained its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy supplies and driving up the price of fuel around the world, with far-reaching consequences.

Fighting has also escalated between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, despite their nominal ceasefire. Israel has extended its occupation deep into Lebanon, and Hezbollah — which joined the war in support of its main backer, Iran — continues to launch drones into Israel.

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The world is getting more uptight about lending money to President Donald Trump’s government — causing interest rates to climb in ways that are worsening affordability pressures, hampering economic growth and creating a new risk for Republicans in November’s midterm elections.

The energy price spike triggered by the Iran war has seeped into the price of bonds that help fund the U.S. government. Interest rates on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note are topping 4.44%, up from 3.95% before the war started at the end of February. Average mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels in nine months, while auto sales are slumping.

The challenge is global in scale, as interest rates have risen for multiple countries as the world has been adjusting to the prospect of higher inflation, mounting questions about the sustainability of government debt and a dramatic surge in investment in artificial intelligence.

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Iowa’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — The retirements of two of Iowa’s most prominent Republican officeholders, Gov. Kim Reynolds and U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst, have had ripple effects throughout Tuesday’s state primary, creating competitive nomination contests to replace them and a chain reaction of open seats down the ballot.

The winners will compete in November’s critical midterm elections, in which Iowa’s U.S. Senate and House seats could determine control of the narrowly divided chambers. The next governor could also play a pivotal role in the 2028 election, given the state’s long history of making or breaking presidential hopefuls.

Two Republicans and two Democrats are competing in primaries to replace Ernst, who announced in 2025 that she would not seek a third term. U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson faces former state Sen. Jim Carlin in the Republican primary, while state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls compete for the Democratic nomination. Carlin ran for Iowa’s other U.S. Senate seat in 2022, receiving about 27% of the primary vote against U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley.

Reynolds also announced in 2025 that she would not seek a third term. Vying for the GOP nomination are state Rep. Eddie Andrews, U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra, entrepreneur and private school co-founder Zach Lahn, former state Rep. Brad Sherman and former state administrative services director Adam Steen. President Donald Trump has endorsed Feenstra.

The winner will face Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand, who is unopposed in his primary. Sand is Iowa’s only Democrat in elected statewide office.

Hinson’s and Feenstra’s statewide campaigns have created open seat contests in the state’s 2nd and 4th Congressional Districts, respectively. Feenstra’s district is heavily Republican and is unlikely to play a major role in determining control of the chamber. Hinson’s district is more competitive, although she won reelection in 2024 with 57% of the vote.

In Iowa’s most competitive congressional seats, Republican U.S. Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of the 1st District and Zach Nunn of the 3rd District are both seeking reelection. Miller-Meeks faces a rematch with her 2024 primary opponent, advertising executive David Pautsch, who received about 44% of the vote. The Democratic field includes former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, who came within 1 percentage point of defeating Miller-Meeks in one of the closest U.S. House races of 2024.

In the 3rd Congressional District, both Nunn and his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, are unopposed in their primaries.

Trump received roughly 54% of the 2024 presidential vote in both the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts and about 52% of the 3rd District vote.

Polk, Linn and Scott counties are Iowa’s most populous, and all three play major roles in both Republican and Democratic statewide primaries. Johnson County is the fourth largest, but as home to Iowa City and the University of Iowa it is an overwhelming Democratic stronghold and tends to exert much less influence in Republican primaries.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, auditor, state Senate and state House.

Only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. However, voters may change their party affiliations at the polls on the day of the primary.

As of May 4, there were about 2.1 million registered voters in Iowa, including about 692,000 registered Republicans, about 496,000 registered Democrats and about 589,000 voters not registered with any party.

About 196,000 Republican primary votes and about 157,000 Democratic primary votes were cast in the 2022 U.S. Senate primaries.

About 16% of the Republican primary vote and about 25% of the Democratic primary vote in the 2022 U.S. Senate primaries was cast before primary day.

As of Friday, about 48,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, roughly 30,000 in the Democratic primary and more than 18,000 in the Republican primary.

Nearly all counties release the results of absentee-by-mail voting at the start of the night. However, counties vary in terms of when they release in-person absentee voting results.

In the last contested state primary in 2022, the AP first reported results at 9:12 p.m. ET, or 12 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 2:29 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Iowa does not have an automatic recount law, but candidates may request and pay for a recount. Candidates do not have to pay for recounts when the margin is less than 1% of the total vote or fewer than 50 votes, whichever is larger. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.


Brought to you by www.srnnews.com


AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Jersey’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — New Jersey voters will nominate candidates for both chambers of Congress in a state primary on Tuesday, including in one key battleground district that could decide control of the U.S. House.

Republicans hold a narrow House majority but face a tough midterm environment in which the party holding the White House typically loses congressional seats. Although Republicans may see gains from mid-decade redistricting in several states and from a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling threatening Democratic-held majority-Black districts across the South, winning competitive seats like New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District remains central to both parties’ strategies to hold or retake the chamber.

U.S. Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is running for a third term in the 7th District and is unopposed for the Republican nomination. His father, Thomas Kean Sr., served two terms as New Jersey’s Republican governor in the 1980s.

He will face the winner of a competitive Democratic primary featuring former healthcare executive Rebecca Bennett, former Small Business Administration official Michael Roth, physician Tina Shah and entrepreneur and business owner Brian Varela. Bennett leads the Democratic field in fundraising and had the most campaign funds available heading into the final stretch of the campaign.

Kean’s whereabouts have been a question on the campaign trail and in the halls of Congress. On April 27, he released a statement saying that he was addressing “a personal medical issue” and that he expected to return “very soon.” As of Monday, he had not voted on any legislation since March 5, missing more than 100 consecutive votes.

The 7th Congressional District in northern New Jersey stretches from Staten Island to the Pennsylvania border. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump narrowly carried the district in 2024, edging Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, 49.6% to 48.5%.

Also on the ballot is U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, who faces no primary opposition in his bid for a third full term. The Republicans hoping to challenge him in November are physician Robert Lebovics, former Tabernacle Deputy Mayor Justin Murphy, Army veteran and former state trooper Richard Tabor and former local TV news reporter Alex Zdan.

Bergen and Middlesex counties in the greater New York City area are among the most populous in the state and are important battlegrounds in both Democratic and Republican statewide primaries. Essex County, which is home to Newark, is also a major population center, but its heavily Democratic electorate makes it less influential in Republican primaries. The counties that contribute the most votes in statewide Republican primaries tend to be Ocean, Monmouth and Morris.

Union County comprises the largest share of the 7th Congressional District vote, followed by Somerset and Hunterdon counties.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate and U.S. House.

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in either primary, but voting in a party’s primary will enroll them in that party.

As of May 1, there were about 6.7 million registered voters in New Jersey, including about 2.5 million registered Democrats, about 1.7 million registered Republicans and about 2.4 million voters not affiliated with any party.

About 841,000 Democratic primary votes and about 466,000 Republican primary votes were cast in the 2025 gubernatorial primary. That was higher than the turnout for the 2024 U.S. Senate primaries, when about 525,000 and 318,000 votes were cast in the Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively.

About 46% of the Democratic primary vote and about 31% of the Republican primary vote in the 2025 gubernatorial primaries was cast before primary day.

As of Wednesday, about 285,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, about 79% from Democrats and about 20% from Republicans.

Counties in New Jersey typically release results from mail and in-person early voting before releasing results from in-person Election Day voting. Counties tend to release all or almost all of their mail and early voting results in the first vote report of the night, before any in-person Election Day results are released.

In the 2025 gubernatorial primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:03 p.m. ET, or three minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 11:43 p.m. ET, with about 93% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts are rare in New Jersey. The state does not have automatic recounts, but candidates and voters may request and pay for them, with the cost refunded if the outcome changes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.


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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Mexico’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Candidates for New Mexico governor and other top state and federal offices will compete for their parties’ nominations in a state primary on Tuesday.

The election takes place as the war in Iran continues to send gas prices soaring, creating an unanticipated windfall in the nation’s No. 2 oil-producing state that the new governor will play a key role in managing. Outgoing Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited.

Running for the Democratic nomination to replace Lujan Grisham are former congresswoman and former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. Haaland was the first Native American cabinet secretary and, if elected, would be the first Native American woman to serve as governor of any state.

The candidates in the Republican primary are former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, medical cannabis entrepreneur and former state cabinet secretary Duke Rodriguez and small business owner Doug Turner.

At the top of the ballot, Democratic U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Luján seeks a second term. He faces a challenge from business owner and community organizer Matt Dodson.

No names will appear on the Republican primary ballot for the U.S. Senate, but 2024 state Senate candidate Larry Marker is running for the nomination as a certified write-in candidate. He previously ran as a write-in candidate for land commissioner in 2022.

Under New Mexico election law, when a certified write-in candidate is the only candidate in a primary, that candidate must reach a certain vote threshold to win the nomination. The vote threshold is the same as the number of signatures required to qualify as an official write-in candidate. For statewide Republican primaries, the threshold is 2,351 votes. If Marker fails to reach the required vote threshold, no Republican U.S. Senate nominee will appear on the general election ballot.

In the Republican primaries for state auditor, treasurer and state House Districts 14 and 44, a lone write-in candidate is the only candidate seeking the nomination for each office. A Democratic write-in candidate is the sole candidate seeking the nomination for state House District 38. Each candidate must reach the vote threshold for their specific office to advance to the general election.

Bernalillo County, home to Albuquerque, is the state’s most populous and plays a pivotal role in both primaries and general elections. Other key counties to watch are Doña Ana, Santa Fe, Sandoval, San Juan and Valencia.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 7 p.m. MT, which is 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, land commissioner and state House. The AP will also determine whether write-in candidates for U.S. Senate, auditor, treasurer and three state House districts will advance to the general election.

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in either primary.

As of April 30, there were about 1.4 million registered voters in New Mexico, including about 573,000 registered Democrats, about 443,000 registered Republicans and about 378,000 voters not affiliated with any party.

About 125,000 Democratic primary votes and about 118,000 Republican primary votes were cast in 2022 gubernatorial primaries.

About 55% of Democratic primary votes and about 48% of Republican primary votes in the 2024 primaries were cast before primary day. This was slightly higher than in the 2022 primaries.

As of Friday, about 94,000 Democratic primary ballots and about 46,000 Republican primary ballots had been cast in Tuesday’s election.

New Mexico’s 33 counties vary in terms of when they release different types of vote results. More than half tend to release all or almost of their mail and early in-person voting results in the first vote update of the night. In-person Election Day vote results are also included in the first vote update in some counties, but most are released over the course of the night.

In the 2022 gubernatorial primary, the AP first reported results at 9:11 p.m. ET, or 11 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 2:50 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in New Mexico are automatic if the vote margin is less than 0.25% of total votes cast in federal or statewide office, less than 0.5% for public education commissioner, district attorney and some countywide offices, and less than 1% for all other offices, including state legislators. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.


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Tensions linger between Republicans and White House over the ‘anti-weaponization’ fund

WASHINGTON (AP) — A standoff between the White House and the Senate remains unresolved after Republican senators defiantly left town 10 days ago without passing legislation to fund President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement agencies.

Senate Republicans who are returning to Washington on Monday say they won’t have the votes to pass the Homeland Security spending bill until the White House works with them to place parameters on a new $1.776 billion settlement fund designed to compensate Trump’s allies. But Trump has shown little interest in doing so, even after a judge temporarily halted any payouts.

It’s unclear how they will settle the dispute.

The Trump administration is “going to have to come up with some suggestions and ideas,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said before the Senate left town on May 21. Thune, of South Dakota, said that the settlement money — some of which could potentially go to Trump supporters who beat police and attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 — “just makes everything way harder than it should be.”

The impasse over the “anti-weaponization” fund could be an inflection point as Republicans try to keep their majority in this year’s elections and advance their agenda. Trump’s campaign year push to defeat GOP lawmakers who he sees as disloyal, including some of Thune’s most reliable Republican votes in the narrow 53-47 Senate, has only added to the tension.

Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas both lost reelection in May after Trump endorsed their primary opponents, and it is unclear how supportive they will be of the president’s agenda going forward. And a growing number of GOP senators have become frustrated with the president as he ignores what they see as their political needs.

“I think it’s hard to divorce anything that happens here from what’s happening in the political atmosphere around us,” Thune said.

Democrats have said they plan to offer several amendments to the immigration bill to scale back or eliminate the settlement. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said in a letter to colleagues Monday morning that Democrats will launch “a coordinated effort to kill the slush fund before one cent goes out the door.”

“No matter what Republicans do, we will force them to vote on it,” he wrote.

As anger among Senate Republicans swelled, Trump made clear that he wasn’t highly concerned.

“I don’t care about the midterms,” Trump said last week in a discussion about the Iran war.

At a closed-door meeting with acting Attorney General Todd Blanche before they left town, Republican senators gave an ultimatum of sorts — put some limits on the settlement or we will do it for you.

GOP senators had been discussing several ways that they could curb the fund, including limiting who can receive payouts, changing the makeup of the commission in charge of settlement decisions, adding some sort of judicial review for applicants or scrapping the fund altogether. Republicans have discussed adding parameters on the settlement to the unrelated immigration enforcement measure but would prefer that the White House make changes on its own.

There were few sings of progress over the Memorial Day recess.

Sen. Todd Young of Indiana told The Associated Press last week that he hadn’t seen any indications “that would suggest they sent us a plan that our leadership thought was acceptable.”

“It’s in their court,” Young said of the White House.

Sen. Bill Hagerty of Tennessee said on Fox New Channel’s “Fox News Sunday” that there are discussions underway “to get to something that’s going to work.”

“I think there were just more details and more questions last week that needed to be resolved,” Hagerty said, adding that “I’m looking forward to seeing the details this coming week.”

Blanche told the AP in an interview Thursday that “a lot of the questions will be answered in the short term.” But he would not elaborate, saying that “talking in hypotheticals is something that I don’t think is fair to the process.”

The acting attorney general’s meeting with senators before they left town was “angry,” according to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who described it on his podcast. Cruz said that of around 45 Senate Republicans who attended, “at least half of them were blasting the attorney general.”

The Senate had planned to stay in session late that night to vote on the immigration spending bill, but leaders canceled votes and sent everyone home. Cruz said Republican senators were “yelling” and told Blanche that the fund, which was part of a settlement that resolves Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS over the leak of his tax returns, “feels like self-dealing” and “feels like Trump cut a deal with himself.”

Cruz, who said he supports the fund, noted that Democrats had said they would offer amendments to kill it. Republicans “would have lost every vote” if they had stayed in session, he said.

He predicted that “we will see the administration announcing at a minimum a modification of this, because if they don’t, they’ve got a full-on revolt in the Senate.”

Cruz said that there were a lot of questions from senators about the Jan. 6 defendants and that Blanche reassured them that no one who committed an act of violence or assaulted law enforcement would get a payout. But Blanche has repeatedly declined to say that publicly, telling the AP that “there is no limit to who can apply.”

Asked about people who were violent on Jan. 6, Blanche suggested that might be too hard to define.

“Who is it? I mean, you tell me, right?” Blanche said. “You have to define something and then stick to it. So that’s something I’ve been hesitant to try to do because it’s very fact intensive.”

Trump has pardoned more than 1,500 defendants who were charged and prosecuted in the 2021 attack, including hundreds who were convicted for violently beating and injuring police as they broke into the Capitol.

The divide over the fund comes after Republicans already abandoned $1 billion in security funding for the White House, including for Trump’s new ballroom, as Democrats and some Republicans questioned using taxpayer money for the massive project at a time of economic hardship. Besides the settlement, Democrats had planned to force Republican senators to vote for or against the ballroom money.

Left in the legislation is funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol, which Democrats have blocked for months in protest of the administration’s immigration enforcement crackdown.

Republicans are using a complicated budget maneuver called reconciliation to fund the agencies through the end of Trump’s term without Democratic support. Still, success requires GOP unity and Trump’s eventual signature.

Democrats say they hope that their Republican colleagues continue to stand up to the White House. Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan said last week that he thinks the settlement fund is ”probably one of the most corrupt things that we’ve ever seen an American president do.”

It is “a bridge too far for some of my Republican Senate colleagues,” Peters said. “I hope they realize that what was done is simply unacceptable and that they’ll stand firm.”

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Associated Press writers Steven Sloan and Joey Cappelletti in Washington and Jamie Stengle in Dallas contributed to this report.


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Colorado elections clerk released from prison after governor commutes sentence

DENVER (AP) — Tina Peters, the former clerk convicted of participating in a scheme to chase election conspiracy theories promulgated by President Donald Trump, was released from prison Monday after the president successfully pressured Colorado’s Democratic governor into commuting her sentence.

Peters’ release was confirmed by the Colorado Department of Corrections. The state agency said it would have no more information about the 70-year-old inmate. Her sentence was shortened by Gov. Jared Polis last month after Trump waged a lengthy pressure campaign against the governor and his state.

Peters served less than a quarter of her nine-year sentence.

Peters was the first local election official to be charged with breaching security after the 2020 election. She snuck in an outside computer expert affiliated with My Pillow Chief Executive Mike Lindell — who himself denied that Trump lost the White House in 2020 — and the person copied the county’s Dominion Voting Systems computer server as it was updated in 2021.

Peters then joined Lindell onstage at a “cybersymposium” that promised to reveal proof that the election was rigged. Video and photos of the computer system upgrade, including passwords, were posted online. The move stoked false claims that voting machines were manipulated to steal the election from Trump.

Peters was convicted in 2024 of attempting to influence a public servant, conspiracy to commit criminal impersonation, violation of duty and other crimes by jurors in Mesa County, a Republican stronghold that supported Trump. An appeals court upheld her conviction in April, but ordered Peters to be resentenced because it said the judge who sent her to prison wrongly punished her for speaking out about election fraud.

Trump had championed Peters’ case, but because she was convicted under state law, he did not have the power to pardon her. Instead, the president pressured Polis to do so, lambasting him on social media and disinviting him to a White House meeting with other governors. The Trump administration also announced plans to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado and relocated the U.S. Space Command to Alabama.

Polis commuted Peters’ sentence on May 15. In a letter, he wrote that although Peters was convicted of serious crimes and deserved to spend time in prison, the sentence was “extremely unusual and lengthy” for a first-time non-violent offender.

Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold, a Democrat, on Monday released a statement warning that the release will “embolden the election denier movement” and adding that, since the clemency announcement, Peters “has continued to spread election falsehoods and conspiracies.”


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California contests for governor, LA mayor head toward primary election with no clear leaders

LOS ANGELES (AP) — California spiraled toward a primary election Tuesday with its two marquee races defined by uncertainty and with a pair of outsider candidates looking to crack open the state’s durable Democratic hierarchy.

In the governor’s race, former Fox News TV host and British political adviser Steve Hilton is urging Republicans to unite behind him as he fights for one of two spots in the November election alongside two Democrats, billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer and former state attorney general Xavier Becerra.

In the Los Angeles race for mayor, reality TV personality Spencer Pratt is hoping to turn his insurgent campaign into a surprise upset of Democratic Mayor Karen Bass. The two are tightly clustered with Nithya Raman, a progressive city council member running to Bass’ political left.

“We can’t give up on LA,” Pratt told applauding supporters at a block party Sunday. “We’ve got to fight.”

Democrats once feared that the party’s large field of gubernatorial candidates could open a path for two Republicans to advance to November. But now, in the campaign’s closing days, Hilton is warning the opposite could happen — what he called a “doomsday scenario” in which only Democrats advance.

Hilton is pleading with his chief Republican rival, county Sheriff Chad Bianco, to pull out of the contest, fearing an all-Democratic ticket would dampen GOP turnout across the state and reorder races for Congress and the Legislature.

Becerra and Steyer locking out a Republican from the November ballot would be “a disaster for California, it means no change. It’s a disaster for everyone who’s running as a Republican up and down the ballot,” Hilton said on the social platform X.

Mail voting began in early May, but just 15% of voters had returned their ballots as of Sunday. That’s left the candidates seeing room for a last-minute shake-up in the race’s closing days.

In heavily Democratic Los Angeles, Bass’ shaky first term has left her vulnerable. She points to a drop in homelessness, though encampments and rows of rusting RVs remain a common sight in many neighborhoods. Meanwhile, she’s still trying to overcome lingering fallout from the 2025 Palisades Fire, the most destructive in Los Angeles history. Bass was in Ghana as part of a presidential delegation when the flames ignited. Pratt lost his home in the blaze and has made the fire and the city’s recovery a foundation of his campaign.

At Pratt’s block party, Vivian Escalante, a historian who lives in the heavily Hispanic Boyle Heights neighborhood adjacent to downtown, said the quality of life has been sliding for years — dirtier streets, more homeless encampments and a lack of pride in the neighborhood she’s called home all her life.

“It’s gotten completely worse,” Escalante said, with a Pratt cap perched on her head. The Democratic Party, she said, has “completely abandoned us.”

The LA race is officially nonpartisan, but Bass is a Democrat, as is Raman, who made a last-minute decision to challenge her one-time ally and is among the top group of contenders.

Pratt, who rose to fame alongside his wife, Heidi Montag, on “The Hills,” is a registered Republican who has received a nod of approval — if not an outright formal endorsement — from President Donald Trump. He has sought to distance himself from national politics, saying his concerns are strictly within city limits.

A University of California, Berkeley, Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Times, found Bass tightly clustered with Raman and Pratt, with other candidates trailing. The poll of 1,351 likely voters conducted between May 19 and May 24 gave no candidate a statistically significant edge.

The city is at a difficult juncture.

Hollywood jobs have been decamping for years for cheaper filming locations. A downtown renaissance was crushed by extended pandemic closures and many office buildings remain desperate for tenants. The city has long struggled to provide basic services, whether paving buckled streets and fixing sidewalks or keeping streetlights on.

The governor’s race has been the most wide open in a generation. More than 50 names are on the ballot.

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is banned by law from seeking a third term. Other candidates seeking to replace him include former Democratic U.S. Rep. Katie Porter,Democrat Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose, and Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff.

Rebecca Katz, a strategist with Steyer’s campaign, said Sunday that they are “feeling pretty good” but emphasized how close the race was with a sporting reference, “It’s three candidates for two spots, every possession counts.”

Steyer, a former hedge fund manager turned liberal activist, has set spending records hoping to advance to the November contest. Hilton, a former Fox News host who has been endorsed by Trump, has promised to bring down costs in a state with some of the nation’s highest gas prices, utility costs and taxes. Becerra has been stressing his experience in arguing he’s best prepared to lead the nation’s second most populous state, having served as the Biden administration’s health secretary, a former U.S. House member and state attorney general.

Broadly, Republicans in the race are promising drastic change after years of Democratic governance — Democrats haven’t lost a statewide race in two decades and Republicans last elected a Los Angeles mayor in 1997. Democrats, though in charge for years, are promising to bring down costs and continue to fend off the Trump administration in its numerous conflicts with Democratic California.

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Associated Press writer Jesse Bedayn in Austin, Texas, contributed to this report.


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